Mozambique votes for new President amidst ongoing insurgency and claims of election fraud

Mozambique is casting its votes for a new president on Wednesday in an election that is poised to extend the ruling Front for the Liberation of Mozambique's (Frelimo) 49-year tenure since gaining independence from Portugal in 1975.

Daniel Chapo, 47, is the candidate for Frelimo, aiming to succeed President Filipe Nyusi, who has served the maximum two terms. The most significant challenge to Chapo's candidacy is expected to come from independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, 50.

In addition to the presidential vote, citizens will also select members of Parliament and provincial governors in a country with a population of about 33 million. Mozambique has a tumultuous history, having endured a bloody civil war from 1977 to 1992, and currently faces an ongoing violent jihadist insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province. Both leading candidates have pledged to address this insurgency and restore stability in the region, which has resulted in the displacement of 1.3 million people.

Vote counting will commence immediately after polls close in this one-day election, with preliminary results anticipated from Thursday. The full results must be submitted to the Constitutional Council within 15 days to be validated and officially declared. Approximately 17 million people are registered to vote.

The credibility of the election is under close scrutiny, as Frelimo has been accused of ballot-stuffing and falsifying results in past elections, including local elections last year, where it claimed victory in 64 out of 65 municipalities. Frelimo has denied any wrongdoing, and regional and international election observers, including those from the European Union, are monitoring the process.

Following independence, Frelimo established a de facto one-party state and fought a lengthy civil war against the Mozambique National Resistance (Renamo). The first elections were held in 1994, following a peace agreement. Renamo is contesting the current election as well, with party leader Ossufo Momade, a former military commander during the civil war, running for president. However, Renamo's popularity has waned, and despite a fragile peace established by a 2019 agreement between Momade and Nyusi, tensions remain.

Mondlane, an independent candidate who previously left Renamo, has centered his campaign around addressing the concerns of young Mozambicans grappling with poverty and unemployment. Mozambique, known for its stunning coastline along the Indian Ocean, has been increasingly affected by cyclones and drought in recent years.

The election context is complicated by revelations from 2016 about government officials embezzling over USD 2 billion in undisclosed foreign loans, which plunged the economy into crisis. Although Mondlane was part of a coalition of opposition parties, they were barred from participating in the election, leading to accusations against Frelimo of attempting to control the electoral process. He is now backed by a new party called Podemos, which translates to "we can" in Portuguese.

While Mondlane presents a new challenge to Frelimo, most analysts predict that the ruling party will maintain its grip on power, having secured more than 70 percent of the vote in the last national elections five years ago. Pangea, a risk assessment company, noted that Chapo's candidacy has been "carefully stage-managed" by Frelimo.

Chapo, a former radio announcer and television presenter turned law professor, previously served as the governor of Inhambane province, a key tourism region in Mozambique. If he wins, he would become the country's first leader born after independence.