Iran warns conflict could spread to Indian Ocean if US attacks again

Iran has warned that the ongoing conflict could spread beyond the Red Sea and reach the Indian Ocean if the United States launches another attack, raising fresh concerns over maritime security, energy supplies and trade routes linking India with West Asia.

Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, issued the warning in a video released by Iran's Fars news agency.

"Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond," Safavi said.

The remarks came as tensions between Tehran and Washington remained high around the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and major maritime trade routes. Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that renewed US military action could trigger retaliation against American interests and assets across the region.

Why the warning matters for India's maritime neighbourhood

The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering about 70.5 million square kilometres, or roughly 20% of Earth's water surface. Its northern boundary includes India, Iran, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

An expansion of the conflict towards the Indian Ocean would bring the crisis closer to India's maritime neighbourhood. It could affect shipping routes connecting India with the Middle East, Europe and Africa, while increasing risks for freight, marine insurance and energy supplies.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is particularly important because it links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and, ultimately, the Indian Ocean. Shipping through the waterway has already been affected by attacks and heightened security concerns. Recent tracking data showed commercial traffic through Bab el-Mandeb had fallen substantially from levels seen before the Red Sea crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz remains another critical chokepoint. The narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is central to energy shipments from the region.

Hormuz traffic has already fallen sharply

The latest warning comes against a backdrop of significant disruption around Hormuz. Reuters reported that only 17 commodity vessels crossed the strait over the weekend of September 19 and 20, compared with 37 the previous week and a pre-war average of about 125 large commercial vessels a day.

Other shipping data has also shown exceptionally low traffic, although the figures vary depending on the tracking methodology and whether vessels have switched off their automatic identification systems.

The disruption has already affected the wider energy and shipping market. The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of global energy shipments, making any prolonged restriction there significant for oil prices, freight rates and insurance costs.

The situation has also raised concerns around the Red Sea corridor, where vessels have faced security risks and some operators have diverted ships around the Cape of Good Hope, adding time and cost to journeys between Asia and Europe.

What a wider conflict could mean for India

India has extensive commercial and energy links with the Gulf region. Any further disruption extending towards the Indian Ocean could therefore affect Indian importers and exporters, particularly through higher shipping, insurance and energy costs.

The US-Iran conflict has already had an impact on India through higher oil, LPG and shipping costs. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz can push up crude prices and increase India's import bill, while putting pressure on the rupee.

India imports more than 88% of its crude oil, leaving its economy exposed to major disruptions in international energy markets. Recent data also shows Indian refiners have been adjusting their sourcing, with Russian crude imports falling in August and September while imports from some Middle Eastern suppliers have changed as refiners seek to diversify supplies.

An expansion of hostilities into the Indian Ocean could consequently create additional pressure on India's energy security, shipping networks and foreign trade.

What has Iran said about further escalation?

Safavi's warning follows other statements from Iranian officials indicating that Tehran could alter its military strategy if further provoked.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said on Monday that it could change its military strategies and targets in response to further provocation, according to the Associated Press.

However, Safavi did not specify what targets in the Indian Ocean could be affected or whether any future action would involve commercial shipping, military assets or a particular country. The warning therefore signals a potential geographical expansion of the conflict rather than announcing a specific operation.

For India, the immediate concern is the possibility that continued disruption across the Persian Gulf, Red Sea and adjoining maritime routes could widen into the country's broader maritime neighbourhood, increasing risks for energy supplies and commercial shipping.