Indian student arrivals in US plunge 39% in August amid Trump's visa crackdown

The number of Indian students arriving in the United States on student visas fell 39 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, marking the third consecutive annual decline during a period when American universities typically see a surge in international students ahead of the fall semester.

Data from the US Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA) recorded 25,321 arrivals from India on F and M category visas in August, down from 41,540 in August 2025. The figure was the lowest for the month since 2020, when pandemic-related travel restrictions limited arrivals to 2,908.

The August 2026 count was also 73 per cent below the peak of 93,833 recorded in August 2023. The decline has accelerated since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, amid tighter immigration scrutiny and uncertainty over rules governing international students.

Stricter screening and visa delays affect arrivals

The decline began in 2024, when arrivals dropped 20.3 per cent to 74,825. The fall accelerated to 44.5 per cent in August 2025, followed by another 39 per cent decline this year.

The Trump administration has expanded social media screening for student visa applicants and pursued changes to rules governing students’ stay in the country and post-study employment.

Under guidance issued by the US State Department on June 18, 2025, student and exchange visitor visa applicants were required to make their social media profiles public for review.

Visa processing delays have added to the difficulties. In a Rajya Sabha reply on April 2, the Ministry of External Affairs said 12,776 F-1 visas were issued to Indian nationals in June and July 2025, down 69.1 per cent from 41,336 in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Arrivals also declined 17.3 per cent year-on-year in June and 30.6 per cent in July. Although September recorded a 5 per cent increase to 12,285 arrivals, the number remained 37.5 per cent below September 2024.

The ITA data count entries rather than individual students and include dependants. They do not establish how many visas were issued, how many students enrolled or the reasons behind the decline.

Rising rejection rates and costs add to concerns

An April paper by US-based education company Shorelight, drawing on government data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, found that the F-1 visa refusal rate for Indian applicants rose from 36 per cent in fiscal 2023 to 53 per cent in 2024 and 61 per cent in 2025.

Education consultants have also pointed to appointment shortages, rising education costs and uncertainty over employment opportunities after graduation.

Vinu Warrier, managing partner and founder of eduVelocity Global, said universities had not significantly changed their admission schedules. “US universities continue to follow their usual admission timelines, with no significant delays reported,” he said.

Anil Wagde, a core team member at Global Empower Network, said visa delays were prompting some students to postpone their plans. “There are some students who have now started postponing their travel to later semesters due to delays in visa issuance,” he said.

An IDP Education spokesperson said families were increasingly assessing affordability and the potential returns from studying in the US. “Fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are affecting affordability, leading families to focus more on return on investment (ROI) when planning their education,” the spokesperson said.

Proposed work visa changes create further uncertainty

The US Department of Homeland Security proposed fees of $70,000 per student for an initial Optional Practical Training (OPT) period and $30,000 for each subsequent period on October 8. OPT allows eligible international students to work in their field during or after completing their studies.

A separate rule that would replace the Duration of Status system with fixed admission periods of up to four years was blocked by a federal court in Massachusetts on September 14. The government has appealed the decision.

Warrier said policy uncertainty was affecting the country's appeal among international students. “The biggest reassurance you would need is stability, certainty,” he said.

Against this backdrop, consultants said some Indian students were considering Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan as alternatives, while others were exploring private universities in India or waiting for greater clarity on US visa and employment rules.