BJP claims TMC heading for split, opposition party says majority of MLAs remain with Mamata

West Bengal minister Tapas Roy on Tuesday claimed that the TMC was heading towards a split, even as the opposition party insisted that the majority of its MLAs remained with its supremo and former CM Mamata Banerjee. The political buzz intensified amid reports that a large section of TMC legislators could break away under the leadership of expelled MLA Ritabrata Banerjee. Speaking to reporters outside the assembly, Roy claimed the Trinamool Congress had accommodated people with little political experience and that internal contradictions were now surfacing. Asserting that the TMC was undergoing an "inevitable process of fragmentation", the Maniktala MLA claimed the party, which ruled West Bengal for the last 15 years, would eventually disappear from the state's political landscape. "There is growing dissatisfaction among many leaders and legislators. The developments indicate that the party is heading towards a split, a situation similar to what happened in Maharashtra," claimed the veteran leader, who switched over to the BJP from the TMC in 2024.

BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya alleged that the TMC was never a democratic party. "It is unfortunate that after such a long struggle, when we have come to power, there may be no democratic opposition. Whether the TMC remains intact or breaks apart is not our concern. We have no connection with their internal crisis," he said. Senior TMC leader Sobhandeb Chattopadhyay, whom the party has nominated as the leader of the opposition, however, dismissed the speculation and alleged that attempts were being made by the ruling dispensation to engineer defections and destabilise the opposition party. "Under intense pressure from the ruling government, some people are being compelled to make statements about forged signatures. There are some who are trying to go against the TMC as the ruling party is pumping money. We are constantly keeping an eye on the situation," he told PTI.

That nomination, however, remains under CID scrutiny over alleged forged signatures of a section of TMC MLAs. "There may be a few who succumb to pressure, but there is no fear that a large rebellion will take place. The majority of MLAs will remain with Mamata Banerjee, and the old guard will continue to be firmly in control of the Trinamool Congress. The twin-flower symbol ('jora ghas phool') will remain with Mamata Banerjee," he said.

Expelled MLA Ritabrata Banerjee, while speaking to reporters after emerging from the assembly premises, acknowledged that he had met some MLAs at the MLA Hostel and shared puffed rice with them.

Banerjee said he preferred to "live by the day" and refused to comment on speculation that more than 50 MLAs could come under his fold. He also claimed that no resolution had been adopted for electing Shobandeb Chattopadhyay as the Leader of the Opposition and asserted that the document he had signed was merely an attendance sheet. The party has been "hijacked by I-PAC and no longer belongs to Mamata Banerjee", he claimed.

TMC MLA and spokesperson Kunal Ghosh alleged that the office of the Assembly Speaker had refused to accept a letter, endorsing party general secretary Abhishek Banerjee's endorsement of Chattopadhyay as the LoP, he sought to submit on Tuesday. Ghosh claimed that he and fellow TMC MLA Ashima Patra had gone to the Speaker's office to submit the letter, but were informed that no communication from them would be received. "Do they want to conceal objections to be recorded for some misdeed?" Ghosh questioned.

Kamarhati MLA Madan Mitra said that the people of West Bengal remained firmly with Mamata Banerjee. While there has been no official confirmation of any split, political circles were abuzz with reports of meetings involving dissident MLAs at a hotel in Kolkata and at the MLA Hostel over the past few days. The TMC had won 80 seats in the 294-member Assembly election. However, two MLAs were expelled on Monday for alleged anti-party activities.

A political party requires the support of at least 10 per cent of the members of the 294-member West Bengal Assembly -- or a minimum of 29 MLAs -- to stake claim to the post of the leader of the opposition and seek formal recognition as the principal opposition party. Political observers noted that if the disgruntled TMC MLAs manage to secure the backing of 52 legislators, the count of other party lawmakers who are with Mamata Banerjee would drop below the 29-member threshold required for recognition as the principal opposition party. The term 'Maharashtra model' entered India's political lexicon after the 2022 split in the Shiv Sena, when a faction led by Eknath Shinde broke away from the parent party and, with the support of the BJP, formed the government in the state.

The model is generally used to describe a political strategy in which a sizeable group of legislators defects from a regional party, secures the support of at least two-thirds of its elected members to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law, and subsequently stakes claim to the party's organisational identity, including its name and election symbol. The breakaway faction then aligns with a larger national party to assume power. The subsequent split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 2023 further reinforced the perception of the Maharashtra developments as a template for political realignments and regime change in states dominated by regional parties.