Over 15K lives at risk in India? The deadly Super El Nino warning explained

The ongoing "Super El Nino" could lead to nearly 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally over the next six months, including around 15,800 (± 1,600) in India, according to a University of Chicago study released on Wednesday.

The researchers said the projected deaths are in addition to those expected in a normal year. India could see a particularly sharp rise during the winter months, with the impact potentially extending into the summer.

“For India, nearly half of those deaths fall in just three months - December to February. The toll is not expected to stop there, with these deaths projected to keep rising into India’s summer,” the study, reported by Hindustan Times, said.

India among countries facing major impact

The study, carried out by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, projects that global land temperatures could remain 1.2°C above normal during the coming months because of El Nino, which began in June and is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring.

The unusually warm conditions could result in 44 per cent more extremely hot days than would normally be expected, according to the assessment.

The researchers said the effects are likely to be particularly severe across parts of the Global South. Over the next six months, the report projects 66,800 additional deaths across Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad. Nigeria alone could record 31,400 additional deaths.

Southeast Asia could see another 19,400 deaths, while Indonesia is projected to record 19,300 additional fatalities. Brazil could see around 13,300 additional deaths.

Emergency measures could save lives

The researchers said immediate action in the most vulnerable regions could prevent tens of thousands of deaths. Suggested measures include heat warnings, outreach to vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations, protections for outdoor workers and increased healthcare capacity.

“The 451,000 deaths projected to occur during the first half of El Niño alone are about 65 times larger than the 6,800 people believed to be dead or missing from the recent Nepal flash flood,” the study said.

Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone said the research can now help officials identify where emergency measures could have the greatest impact.

“The result is that we now can estimate that 451,000 people may die in the coming months due to El Nino,” he said. “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.”

El Nino offers glimpse of future climate

The study described the current conditions as a “postcard from our future”, saying they resemble temperatures climate change could bring about two decades from now.

Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report, said emergency action remains important but long-term preparation is also needed.

“However, 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we do not want to be in a constant state of emergency. We need to mobilise resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”