Himalayan glaciers melting 65 per cent faster, black carbon driving one-third of loss

Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 per cent faster than they were a decade ago, with black carbon responsible for about one-third of the melt, according to a new study.

The study by global consultancy Systemiq, in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and with contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, warned that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their current glacier volume by 2100 if present trends continue.

Although the Himalayan region accounts for about 18 per cent of India’s land area, it contributes to more than 20 per cent of the country’s GDP and accounts for about 35 per cent of disasters, the study said.

Black carbon accelerates glacier melt

The report identified black carbon as a major factor that can be addressed at a regional level. It said soot from sources such as brick kilns in the plains can travel towards the mountains and settle on glaciers, speeding up melting.

“The heart of the challenge is a growth model putting pressure on Himalayan systems at three levels. Globally, warming created elsewhere is destabilising a cryosphere the region did not put at risk.

Regionally, black carbon drifting up from the plains settles on the same glaciers, accelerating the melt driving today’s disasters, a lever, unlike global warming itself, the region and India can act on directly. Our research shows roughly a third of Himalayan glacier melt is driven by black carbon, largely from brick kilns in the plains, making this one of the few levers the region can pull now,” the report stated.

Few glaciers are being monitored

The report also raised concerns about the limited monitoring of glaciers across the region. Of the estimated 40,000 glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, only around 21 are currently being monitored, including about 16-17 in India.

“Shocks are now unavoidable, but the region still lacks the intelligence needed to anticipate them. For example, only around 0.1% of the Himalaya’s estimated 40,000 glaciers are currently monitored, while permafrost, another critical source of instability, is even less understood. The priority is therefore to build the monitoring, early-warning and risk-mapping systems needed to anticipate hazards and guide smarter siting and preparedness before disaster strikes, rather than simply responding afterwards,” the report said.

Peak water expected by mid-century

Most Himalayan river basins are expected to reach “peak water” around the middle of the century. This refers to the point when glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as ice reserves shrink.

The report recommended cutting soot emissions, protecting fire-prone forests, restoring drying Himalayan springs and managing tourist carrying capacity.

ICIMOD director general Pema Gyamtsho said the region is changing rapidly, with glaciers retreating and high-mountain slopes becoming increasingly unstable.

“Communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards. This report makes a strong case for coordinated action, including bringing the private sector behind resilient action. Cross-border monitoring, shared risk information and early-warning systems, and joint investment in resilience are all becoming essential for safeguarding lives, livelihoods and economies across the region.”