Marco Rubio's India visit: Trade, security and Russian oil on agenda

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to arrive in Mumbai on Tuesday with a business delegation, with trade, defence, technology and critical minerals expected to dominate discussions with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar amid continuing strains in India-US relations.

Rubio is travelling to India after a visit to Uzbekistan. The trip marks his second visit to the country since May, when he held bilateral talks with Jaishankar and attended a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi.

India-US ties amid trade and tariff tensions

The meeting comes days after US President Donald Trump waived provisions of the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act (SRIA), which authorised punitive tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil.

India has conveyed its concerns to the US administration over the legislation and its possible implications for bilateral relations and global energy markets. The discussions are expected to focus on sustaining cooperation in trade, energy, technology and critical minerals, according to people familiar with the matter.

Negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement remain stalled, with both sides yet to find common ground on a potential deal. Relations have also faced pressure from the Trump administration’s tariff policies, restrictions affecting Indian professionals and Washington’s growing engagement with Pakistan.

Ahead of the visit, Rubio acknowledged India's continued dependence on Russian energy despite efforts to diversify its suppliers. He said “it’s hard to pivot” on oil suppliers and added that Trump intended to use the 60-day period for waivers under the SRIA to assess the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the global economy.

Ukraine, West Asia and energy security on agenda

Jaishankar and Rubio are also expected to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia, particularly their implications for food, fuel and fertiliser supplies.

India has proposed a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire aimed at maintaining energy and food supplies while preventing attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea.

The two sides may also discuss possible leadership-level meetings on the sidelines of the Asean Summit in Manila next month and the G20 Summit in Florida.

Rubio to visit Jamnagar refinery

Rubio’s itinerary includes a visit to Reliance Industries’ refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, on October 21. The facility is a major processor of Russian oil. Reliance is also investing in a large refinery project in Texas, the first new project of its kind in the US in five decades.

Ahead of Rubio’s arrival, Jaishankar will meet UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan over dinner on Monday to review bilateral cooperation, including energy, trade, investment and defence, besides discussing the situation in West Asia.