Kharif harvest at risk? Uneven monsoon raises concern over crop yields

India’s southwest monsoon has lost some momentum after helping narrow the country’s rainfall deficit from nearly 40% at the end of June. The all-India deficit stood at 12% below the long-period average (LPA) as of August 13, raising concerns for kharif crops now entering crucial growth stages.

With sowing largely complete, the coming weeks could be important for crops such as soybean, paddy, maize and tur, particularly in rain-dependent farming regions.

Monsoon outlook raises concerns

Agriculture Ministry data showed kharif sowing was around 2% lower than a year ago as of August 14. Rice acreage was down 3.7%, while tur and maize acreage fell 4% each. Cotton and sugarcane sowing was also marginally lower, reported Hindustan Times.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast below-normal rainfall for August and September. Its August 13 extended-range forecast indicated near-normal rainfall between August 13 and 19, followed by normal to below-normal rainfall from August 20 to 26 as the monsoon trough shifts northwards.

Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet Weather, said rainfall in the first half of August helped prevent the deficit from widening but did not provide enough widespread rain to significantly improve the seasonal situation.

“We expected some recovery during the first half of August, but substantial rainfall has been missing. Daily rainfall has remained close to the daily long period average… We now expect this to increase slightly after August 15 as the monsoon trough shifts towards the Himalayan foothills...,” he told HT.

Regional gaps remain wide

The national figure masks significant differences across states. Central India was just 1% below normal, while rainfall was 11% below normal in northwest India and 20% below average in the south peninsula.

East and northeast India recorded a 27% deficit. Bihar was 39% below normal, while East Uttar Pradesh and Punjab were each 31% below normal.

IMD data showed rainfall deficits in 40 of India’s top 50 rice-producing districts, along with 21 of the top 25 soybean districts and 18 of the top 21 tur districts.

Crop yields depend on the next few weeks

Bhashkar Dubey, Assistant Professor and Agriculture Expert at KIT College, Prayagraj, said uneven rainfall could prove more significant than the national deficit.

“The biggest concern for kharif crops at this stage is not merely the cumulative rainfall deficit, but the uneven distribution of rainfall, prolonged dry spells and moisture availability during the crop’s critical growth stages,” he told HT.

“One or two days of heavy rain cannot compensate for a seasonal rainfall deficit. If heavy rainfall is followed by a long dry spell, soil moisture declines rapidly. This year, some districts have experienced flooding while others continue to struggle with rainfall deficiency and prolonged dry spells.”

Soybean, rainfed paddy, tur and maize are particularly vulnerable during their key reproductive stages, while cotton faces risks from both dry spells and waterlogging.

Vishwas Chitale of CEEW said the pattern points to a broader shift, with the monsoon becoming increasingly erratic rather than simply wetter or drier.