IMD forecasts hotter May, above-normal rain and early monsoon onset

Above-normal heatwave days are likely in some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra in May, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its monthly forecast on Friday. The department also highlighted that the rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during May is most likely to be above normal, with the onset of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands expected around May 14-16. Director General of Meteorology, IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, said, "During May 2026, minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal across many parts of the country." "However, many areas of northwest India, along with some parts of central India and adjoining areas of peninsular India and southern parts of northeast India, are likely to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures," he said in a statement.

Rainfall in May is most likely to be above normal over India, barring some parts of east, northeast and east central India, where below-normal rainfall is expected. On the onset of the southwest monsoon, Mohapatra said, "The monsoon may arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 14-16." Currently, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific are evolving towards El Niño -- the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System forecast indicates the development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season, according to the IMD. In April, the IMD said, most parts of the country experienced normal to below-normal maximum temperatures, except for southern peninsular India, where temperatures were above normal. The weather department said the country was impacted by seven western disturbances during April.