Apple’s foldable iPhone set to test Samsung’s seven-year lead as price battle looms

Apple is preparing to enter the foldable smartphone market seven years after Samsung Electronics, setting up a high-stakes contest in one of the few segments expected to grow despite a sharp contraction in the broader smartphone industry. The US technology giant has scheduled a special event at its California headquarters for September 9, where industry watchers expect it to unveil its first foldable iPhone alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. The foldable device is widely being referred to as the iPhone Ultra, though Apple has not confirmed its name, specifications or price.

Samsung has enjoyed a substantial head start, having introduced its first commercial foldable smartphone in 2019. It has since refined the format over successive generations, giving the South Korean company years to address challenges around hinges, display durability, software optimisation and device thickness. Apple’s ability to narrow that gap could depend significantly on price, particularly as consumers weigh a first-generation foldable iPhone against Samsung’s established Galaxy Z Fold series.

Price emerges as key battleground

Analyst estimates suggest Apple’s foldable could carry a starting price of more than $2,000. TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has projected a US starting price of between $2,299 and $2,499, while other estimates have also placed the device firmly at the premium end of the smartphone market.

An unverified leak purportedly originating from Mexican carrier Telcel listed a 512GB foldable iPhone at 50,599 Mexican pesos, or around $2,963. If accurate, the price would be about 5.4 per cent below the launch price of Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra in Mexico. Neither Apple nor Telcel has confirmed the leak.

Samsung itself has increased prices for its latest generation of foldables. In South Korea, the 512GB Galaxy Z Flip8 is priced at 1.94 million won, up 11.4 per cent from its predecessor, while the Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra has risen 7.5 per cent to 2.8303 million won. Pricing could therefore prove crucial for Apple. While the company has a large base of loyal iPhone users and a tightly integrated ecosystem, convincing consumers to spend substantially more than they would on a conventional flagship smartphone could prove challenging.

Apple bets on ecosystem

The expected foldable iPhone is reported to adopt a book-style design with passport-like proportions. Its inner display could approach the size of an iPad mini, while an external screen would allow it to function like a conventional smartphone when folded. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold8 has a 7.6-inch main display, while the Fold8 Ultra offers an 8-inch screen and a 200-megapixel primary camera.

Samsung is expected to lean heavily on its accumulated foldable experience and Galaxy AI features to defend its position. Apple, meanwhile, could use the close integration between the iPhone, iPad and its wider software ecosystem to differentiate its device. The larger folding screen could allow Apple to introduce more tablet-like multitasking and applications while retaining the portability of a smartphone.

Foldables defy market slowdown

The rivalry is unfolding against a difficult backdrop for the global smartphone industry. International Data Corporation expects worldwide smartphone shipments to fall 16.7 per cent this year to just over one billion units, with higher component and memory costs contributing to the decline.

Foldables, however, are expected to buck that trend. IDC forecasts shipments in the category to increase 12.6 per cent to 22.9 million units this year, with Apple’s entry expected to accelerate consumer interest. IDC expects Apple to ship more than 10 million foldable iPhones in the first year and capture about 31 per cent of the foldable market. Its share could approach 40 per cent in 2027. Such projections suggest Samsung’s seven-year advantage may face its biggest test yet. Apple will arrive late to the category, but the size of its existing customer base and ecosystem could quickly alter competitive dynamics.

Much will depend on whether Apple can deliver a polished first-generation product at a price consumers consider competitive. With Samsung already established in the segment, the battle for the next phase of the foldable market could ultimately be decided as much by the price tag as by the technology inside.