US House passes Russia sanctions Bill: Will losing Russian oil make petrol costlier in India?

The US House of Representatives has passed a Russia sanctions Bill that gives President Donald Trump the power to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries buying Russian oil and gas, putting India's crude purchases from Moscow under fresh scrutiny. The Bill has now been sent to Trump for his signature.

But for Indian consumers, the immediate question is simpler: could this make petrol more expensive?

The answer is not straightforward. Losing Russian crude would not automatically translate into a fixed increase at petrol pumps. The eventual impact would depend on the price of replacement crude, global oil prices, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, refinery costs, taxes and how oil marketing companies respond.

Here are seven things to know.

1. How much Russian oil does India buy?

Russia has become a major source of crude for India since 2022. In FY 2026, India imported $40.8 billion worth of Russian crude, accounting for nearly one-third of its total crude imports, according to data cited by the Global Trade Research Initiative.

India imports most of the crude it consumes, making international oil prices an important factor for its energy costs.

2. Would losing Russian oil immediately make petrol expensive?

Not necessarily.

Indian refiners can replace Russian barrels with crude from the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and other suppliers. The bigger issue is the price of that replacement oil.

Russian crude has generally been attractive because of discounts to international benchmarks. But those discounts have narrowed. Reuters reported in July that Russian Urals delivered to India was trading at a discount of around $1-$2 per barrel against Brent, compared with discounts of more than $10 earlier that month.

3. Global crude prices could matter more

If Russian oil simply changes hands and India buys replacement barrels, the impact may be manageable.

The situation could be different if sanctions remove a substantial amount of Russian crude from the global market. A tighter supply could push international oil prices higher, affecting buyers worldwide.

For India, that could mean paying more both because the Russian discount is lost and because replacement crude becomes costlier.

4. India can buy oil elsewhere but at what cost?

India is not dependent on Russia alone for crude. However, changing suppliers involves freight, insurance, availability, payment arrangements and refinery compatibility.

If several countries compete for the same alternative supplies at the same time, prices could rise further. So the key question is not simply whether India can replace Russian oil, but how much those replacement barrels will cost.

5. How are petrol prices decided?

Petrol and diesel prices are market-determined and are set by oil marketing companies based on international prices and other market conditions.

But the pump price also includes refining and freight costs, dealer commission, central excise and state taxes. This means a rise in crude prices does not necessarily translate into an identical rise in retail fuel prices.

In March 2026, the government cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each after international crude prices surged. Retail prices were kept unchanged, with the move helping offset losses incurred by public-sector oil companies.

6. How much could petrol prices rise?

There is no reliable fixed number at this stage.

If global oil supplies remain adequate, Indian refiners could replace Russian crude with limited pressure on retail prices. If Russian supplies fall sharply and global crude prices rise, pressure on petrol and diesel prices would increase.

A wider supply disruption could make the situation more difficult.

7. What does the 100 per cent US tariff actually mean?

The Bill does not automatically impose a 100 per cent tariff on India. It gives Trump the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that continue buying Russian energy.

Importantly, such tariffs would apply to Indian goods entering the US—not directly to petrol sold in India.

However, they could affect Indian exporters and the wider economy, with possible implications for the rupee and import costs.

So, losing Russian oil does not automatically mean petrol will become Rs 10, Rs 20 or Rs 30 more expensive.

The eventual impact will depend on global crude prices, replacement supplies, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, refinery margins, oil company pricing decisions and government taxation.