Israel election ends in deadlock as neither bloc wins majority. What lies ahead?

Israel faces another period of political uncertainty after the October 27 parliamentary election failed to produce a clear majority for either Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his opponents. With the final vote count completed, attention has shifted from the ballot box to coalition negotiations that could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power, an alternative government takes office or the country returns to elections.

The results have created an unusual parliamentary balance. Netanyahu's bloc has lost its majority, but the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot cannot form a government on its own. The 19 seats won by two Arab-led parties could prove decisive, although political disagreements over cooperating with them have complicated negotiations.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄?

Israel's 120-member parliament, the Knesset, requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers to form a majority government. According to the final results published by the Central Elections Committee on Friday, Netanyahu's political bloc secured 53 seats, while the opposition grouping led by Eisenkot won 48.

The remaining 19 seats went to the Joint List and the United Arab List, also known as Ra'am, representing a record level of parliamentary representation for Arab-led parties. Netanyahu's Likud emerged as the largest individual party with 27 seats, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar with 21.

Voter turnout reached 77.9 per cent, the highest in decades. The results marked a significant setback for Netanyahu's alliance, which held 68 seats in the outgoing parliament, but did not produce a straightforward transfer of power.

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗮𝗯-𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿?

The election has placed Arab-led parties in a potentially influential position because their 19 lawmakers could help the opposition reach a parliamentary majority. If Eisenkot's 48-seat grouping secured support from all 19, the combined strength would rise to 67 seats, comfortably above the required threshold.

However, the arithmetic is simpler than the politics. Several parties aligned against Netanyahu have ruled out relying on Arab-led factions, citing disagreements over national security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Eisenkot has indicated that cooperation could be considered under certain conditions, including recognition of Hamas as an extremist organisation, but a common position has not emerged.

Netanyahu has rejected forming a government dependent on Arab-led parties. His Likud party has also raised allegations of electoral irregularities involving Arab voting, without publicly presenting evidence substantiating claims of systematic fraud. Election authorities have rejected claims of widespread electoral manipulation.

𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗘𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗻𝗸𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗮 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁?

One possible outcome is a government headed by Eisenkot and supported externally by Arab-led parties. Under such an arrangement, the Arab parties would not necessarily hold ministerial positions but could provide the parliamentary support needed for the government to survive confidence votes and pass important legislation.

A similar political arrangement has precedent in Israel. Ra'am joined the coalition headed by Naftali Bennett in 2021, becoming the first independent Arab party to participate in an Israeli governing coalition. That government survived for approximately 18 months before collapsing.

A new arrangement would require significant compromises among parties with sharply different positions on security, military service and the Palestinian question. Even if the numbers support such a government, maintaining its stability could be difficult.

𝗖𝗮𝗻 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗮𝗵𝘂 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿?

Yes. Although Netanyahu's bloc is eight seats short of a majority, the election result does not automatically remove him from office. He remains prime minister while the process of forming a new government continues.

One option would be to persuade parties currently aligned with the opposition to join a coalition led by Likud. Such an agreement could provide the additional seats required for a majority, although it would require political rivals who campaigned against Netanyahu to reverse their positions.

Another possibility is a broader national unity government involving Likud and centrist or right-wing opposition parties. Such an arrangement could command a substantial majority but would involve difficult negotiations over leadership, ministerial portfolios and policy priorities.

The central obstacle is that many opposition leaders made Netanyahu's removal a major election commitment. Entering a government under his leadership could therefore carry considerable political costs.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹'𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆?

President Isaac Herzog will play a constitutional role in determining who receives the first opportunity to form a government. The final election results are expected to be formally submitted to him on Wednesday, after which he will consult representatives of the parties elected to parliament.

The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, he can assign the task to the lawmaker he believes has the strongest prospect of assembling a viable government.

The selected candidate normally receives 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible extension. If that attempt fails, another candidate may be given an opportunity. A further parliamentary process allows lawmakers to nominate an alternative candidate.

If these efforts fail within the prescribed period, Israel would face another general election, potentially early next year.

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀?

The October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack and the wars that followed remained central to the election campaign. The attack killed around 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in 251 hostages being taken. The subsequent military campaigns in Gaza and elsewhere intensified disagreements over national security, accountability and the government's handling of the conflict.

Netanyahu's opponents have demanded an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures surrounding October 7. His supporters, meanwhile, have highlighted the government's military achievements and argued that his leadership helped Israel respond to multiple security threats.

Another major dividing issue concerns exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. Netanyahu's political alliance has depended on ultra-Orthodox parties that seek to preserve exemptions, while Eisenkot has pledged to end them. The issue has become particularly sensitive after years of fighting and substantial casualties among soldiers and reservists.

These disagreements could influence coalition negotiations as much as the distribution of seats.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗳 𝗻𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀?

If neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can assemble sufficient parliamentary support, Israel could face another election within months. Such an outcome would prolong political uncertainty and leave major decisions on security, the economy and domestic legislation in the hands of an interim administration.

Before that happens, the newly elected Knesset is expected to convene on November 10. Even without a government in place, parties could cooperate on parliamentary appointments and legislative initiatives, potentially altering the balance of political power.

The immediate question is therefore not simply which bloc won more seats, but whether rival parties can overcome their political differences to reach the 61-seat threshold. With neither principal camp commanding a majority, Israel's next government will be determined by negotiations rather than the election results alone.