From Boom to Brink | Silver’s Risky Peak

Silver has hit a fresh high of $51.25 per ounce this week, surging nearly 73 per cent in 2025, comfortably outpacing gold’s 53 per cent rise year-to-date. When prices were around $42 per ounce in mid-September, there had been a projection of a potential climb to the $50–51 range — a target achieved faster than expected. The latest rally above $40 marks only the third time in history that silver has reached such levels. The two previous peaks came in January 1980 ($49.45) and April 2011 ($49.8). In 1980, silver benefited from inflation worries and geopolitical tension; in 2011, the surge was driven by safe-haven demand amid the Eurozone crisis and U.S. monetary easing. This time, the rally reflects a combination of investor enthusiasm for silver-backed Exchange Traded Products (ETPs), rising retail participation, and renewed anxiety over currency debasement. However, speculative fervour has also crept in, raising the possibility that prices have climbed too far, too fast.

A Time for Caution

With silver now testing key resistance zones, analysts urge restraint against “FOMO” (fear of missing out) buying. History suggests that sharp upswings have often been followed by equally swift corrections. Technical charts show major resistance between $50.50 and $53.70, connecting the long-term peaks of 1980 and 2011. In both those episodes, silver prices collapsed by more than 50 per cent within months of reaching the top. If history repeats, silver could revisit $35–34 or even $32 before stabilising.

Gold–Silver Ratio Near Support

The gold-to-silver ratio, which fell steeply from 107 in April to around 80.15, has reached a zone of long-term support between 77.80 and 77.50. When this ratio rebounds, it typically signals a relative decline in silver prices. A possible reversal could push the ratio first towards 96 and then to 101, implying a sharp downward correction in silver.

Echoes of the Past

The current pattern resembles earlier bull phases — notably the rallies from 2006 to 2011 and 2019 to 2025. In both, silver’s ascent from around $17 to over $50 displayed strikingly similar trajectories, though the durations varied. If this historical symmetry holds and a reversal follows, analysts caution that silver could again retreat to the $34–32 range in the months ahead.