US inflation, China prices and UK growth data to dominate global economic calendar this week

Inflation readings from the United States and China, economic growth figures from the United Kingdom and a series of central bank updates will keep global markets occupied in the coming week, as investors assess the outlook for interest rates and economic activity.

In the US, October consumer price data, due on Tuesday, will be the most closely watched release. It is expected to show that inflation eased after two particularly difficult months for American consumers. The report will be the last major inflation update before the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting, where investors expect policymakers to raise interest rates.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the consumer price index (CPI) to increase by 0.3 per cent in October, following a 0.6 per cent rise in the previous month. That was the biggest monthly increase since April.

Core CPI, which excludes the often-volatile food and energy components, is also expected to moderate. The median estimate points to a 0.2 per cent increase, which would be the smallest advance in three months.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish year-on-year inflation figures because it did not release October 2025 CPI data during the federal government shutdown at the time.

Investors will examine the finer details of the report for indications of inflation risks heading into early 2027. Economists at Citigroup Inc. expect only limited pass-through of elevated energy costs into goods prices, alongside moderate inflation in services.

Bloomberg Economics expects headline CPI to have risen by 0.25 per cent in October, compared with 0.65 per cent previously. Core inflation is projected to have increased by 0.24 per cent, against 0.33 per cent in the preceding month. Softer price increases in both goods and services are expected to contribute to the moderation.

Within goods, used cars and consumer electronics, which have faced price pressures linked to the artificial intelligence boom, are expected to show slower inflation. In services, the increase in owners' equivalent rent is projected to have eased by a third from the September spike, according to Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong, Troy Durie and Eliza Winger.

The inflation report follows a stronger-than-expected October employment report released on Friday. Continued job growth could sustain consumer spending and allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its focus on bringing inflation under control.

Another important US price indicator, the producer price index (PPI), is scheduled for release on Friday. It is forecast to show annual inflation accelerating to 6.6 per cent in October, the steepest increase in nearly four years, indicating that businesses continue to face significant cost pressures.

The US economic calendar will also include figures on existing-home sales on Thursday. The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that contract closings on previously owned homes fell to their lowest level since 2010, as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the housing market.

The week will also feature the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, while Federal Reserve officials' public appearances are likely to be scrutinised for further indications of the central bank's policy direction. Wednesday is Veterans Day in the US, when the bond market will be closed but equity markets are expected to remain open.

Canada faces signs of slower economic activity

In Canada, manufacturing and wholesale trade figures for September are expected to point to a slowdown in economic growth during the third quarter.

Manufacturing sales are forecast to have increased by just 0.1 per cent in September, compared with a 1.5 per cent rise in August. The weaker performance may partly reflect an unexpected work stoppage at US automobile plants, which affected cross-border vehicle trade.

Wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, are expected to have risen by 0.5 per cent, following a 1.6 per cent decline in the previous month.

The Bank of Canada will also publish a summary of the discussions that preceded its first interest rate increase in three years. The account is expected to offer insight into policymakers' assessment of inflation and the economy when they decided to raise borrowing costs.

Asia: China inflation and India's price data in focus

Asian markets will begin the week with Australia's housing figures, released on Sunday. The data showed that home sales and auction clearance rates had increased, raising hopes of a recovery in a property market that has struggled as interest rates rose during the year.

China's October inflation figures, due on Monday, will be among the region's most important releases. Consumer price inflation is expected to ease slightly to 0.8 per cent, reflecting continued weakness in sectors outside energy and artificial intelligence.

Factory-gate inflation is forecast to accelerate to 5.4 per cent, its fastest pace since June 2022, amid supply-side reflationary pressures. The figures will be assessed for signs of whether recent policy support is translating into stronger domestic demand and pricing power.

Japan will publish its October producer price figures, which are expected to indicate that cost pressures remain elevated. Consumer price data from India, meanwhile, could show inflation rising above 6 per cent for the first time since August 2023.

The Philippines is expected to report a modest acceleration in economic growth during the third quarter. Australia will release consumer and business sentiment indicators on Wednesday. The National Australia Bank's Business Confidence index for October is expected to remain negative for the ninth consecutive month.

New Zealand's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for October is due on Friday. The indicator has remained firmly in expansionary territory since July 2025.

Japan's household spending figures for September, scheduled for Tuesday, could show expenditure declining for the 10th consecutive month. Such a reading would raise questions about the Bank of Japan's assessment that rising incomes will gradually feed into stronger consumer spending.

Trade figures from China, India and Taiwan will also be released during the week.

There are no scheduled central bank policy decisions in Asia. However, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will publish a summary of opinions from its October board meeting. The central bank kept its policy settings unchanged at the meeting but said underlying inflation had finally reached its 2 per cent target, an assessment that could pave the way for another rate increase as early as December.

Europe, Middle East and Africa: UK growth and central bank signals

The UK's third-quarter economic figures, due on Thursday, will provide an indication of the strength of the economy ahead of the next phase of monetary policy tightening. Economists expect growth to have accelerated to 0.7 per cent, which would be the fastest expansion in more than two years.

Central bank officials will also be in focus. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak in Zurich on Monday, while Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli will address the 'Bank of England and Its Watchers' conference on Tuesday. European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane is also expected to speak at the event.

Eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss the process of finding a successor to ECB President Christine Lagarde, following the close of nominations for the position.

Other European releases include German exports on Monday, Italian industrial production on Wednesday and a second estimate of eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday.

In the Nordic region, Sweden's Riksbank will publish the minutes of its latest decision to raise borrowing costs on Tuesday. Norway's October inflation figures are also due that day.

Egypt's inflation report will be closely monitored after price growth eased for two consecutive months. The country's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates in October.

Ghana's Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson is expected to present the 2027 budget to lawmakers on Thursday. The budget is likely to outline details of a $10 billion economic plan aimed at accelerating growth and creating jobs following years of fiscal consolidation after the country's default.

Russia is expected to report weak economic expansion when its third-quarter GDP figures are released on Friday, according to Bloomberg Economics. October inflation data, also due on Friday, could show annual price growth rising above 7 per cent for the first time in a year.

Latin America: Rate outlooks and inflation remain under scrutiny

In Latin America, Mexico's full-month and late-month inflation readings, due on Monday, are expected to show price growth moving further above the central bank's 3 per cent target and closer to its 4 per cent upper limit.

The consensus forecasts are slightly below the revised projections issued by the Bank of Mexico following its unexpected quarter-point interest rate cut to 6.25 per cent on November 5.

Colombia will also release consumer price figures following a monetary policy meeting. Unlike Mexico, Colombia's central bank, BanRep, decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 12.25 per cent, a level that remains considerably restrictive.

Brazil will be in focus on Tuesday when the central bank publishes minutes of its November 3-4 policy meeting. Investors will look for clues about the reasoning behind its decision to keep the benchmark Selic rate unchanged at 13.75 per cent.

The decision marked a significant shift in expectations. Before the meeting, there had been a strong consensus that policymakers would deliver a sixth consecutive rate cut, taking the rate to 13.5 per cent.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's surprise re-election and the absence of clarity on how his government intends to restore fiscal discipline have complicated the outlook. Ahead of the November 4 decision, local analysts had raised their benchmark interest rate forecasts through the 2029 projection horizon.

Brazil's October inflation figures are also expected to show another increase from September's reading of 4.58 per cent, which was already above the central bank's target. The expected movement is consistent with analysts' latest inflation projection of 5.22 per cent for 2026.

Argentina's October inflation data could offer some relief, with local analysts expecting monthly price growth to remain below 2 per cent for the third consecutive month. The reading could be lower than September's 1.9 per cent, while annual inflation is expected to remain close to the previous month's 33.4 per cent.

However, Argentina's economy has slipped into a technical recession less than a year before the next election. Containing consumer price growth could therefore prove increasingly difficult for President Javier Milei.

Peru's central bank is scheduled to meet on Thursday. After keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25 per cent for 13 consecutive months, Governor Julio Velarde and his colleagues are expected to deliver their first increase since January 2023. The move would follow a sharp rise in October inflation to 5.25 per cent.

With inflation, employment and growth indicators arriving from several major economies, the coming week is likely to shape expectations for monetary policy into the end of the year. Investors will particularly watch whether easing consumer price pressures in some regions can offset persistent cost increases elsewhere, and whether central banks will have to maintain or intensify restrictive policies.