India's Russian oil imports fall to 1.82 mln bpd in September as China competes for barrels

India remained the world's largest destination for Russian crude oil in September, but its imports fell sharply from mid-year highs as stronger Chinese buying tightened supply, according to an analysis based on Kpler ship-tracking.

Russian crude imports decline from mid-year highs

India took around 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in September against about 1.49 million bpd for China, Kpler data showed. The figure is down from 2.6 million bpd in June and 2.57 million bpd in July, a fall of roughly 29 per cent from the July level. Imports were 2.02 million bpd in August.

Sumit Ritolia, senior manager (modelling) at Kpler, said the slowdown should not be read solely as a reaction to US tariff threats.

"The recent moderation in India's Russian imports is not simply a response to US tariff pressure; tighter availability and stronger competition from China have also played an important role," he said.

Chinese refiners have drawn more Russian barrels in recent months, partly because of reduced access to Iranian crude, Kpler said.

October imports are expected to hold at around 1.8-1.9 million bpd, broadly flat from September, based on cargoes currently tracked.

Venezuelan crude returns to India's import basket

Venezuelan oil has returned to India's crude basket this year after being largely absent in recent years, with flows accelerating since April, Kpler said. The US, however, remains the largest destination for Venezuelan barrels.

Venezuela exported about 250,000 bpd to India in August and 257,000 bpd in September, compared with roughly 452,000 bpd and 563,000 bpd to the US. On an arrival basis, Indian imports of Venezuelan crude reached about 287,000 bpd in August. Kpler said the two measures differ because of voyage timing.

Reliance Industries' Jamnagar complex is the main Indian buyer and is expected to remain so, owing to its refining configuration.

"Venezuelan heavy and extra-heavy grades are relatively difficult barrels to process and are not universally suitable across India's refining system," the analyst said. "Reliance's Jamnagar complex is particularly well configured for these barrels, which explains why we see more continuous processing there."

Refinery capabilities shape future Venezuelan oil purchases

State-owned refiners have bought Venezuelan oil only opportunistically so far, in volumes far below Reliance's. Kpler has tracked cargoes into Indian Oil Corporation's Paradip refinery, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals has historically been able to process some Venezuelan grades.

Venezuelan grades can be heavy, high in sulphur and, in some cases, high in total acid number (TAN), requiring sophisticated refineries to run them continuously and in sizeable proportions.

Kpler said India is diversifying supply rather than abandoning Russian crude, which remains a very significant part of its import basket. More barrels are coming from the Middle East, the Americas and other sources.

"Even if Venezuelan crude remains commercially attractive, I would expect the buying to remain concentrated among a relatively limited group of technically capable refineries rather than becoming a broad-based replacement barrel across India's entire refining system," Ritolia said.

Venezuelan exports to India eased to around 250,000-300,000 bpd in August and September, while a growing share of available barrels has recently gone to the US. Kpler expects Indian arrivals to stay relatively strong in October at about 350,000 bpd, though some late-October cargoes could slip into November because of the long voyage.