India's rice exporters eye Turkey, Jordan as next growth frontiers beyond traditional markets

Indian rice exporters are turning their attention to unconventional markets such as Turkey and Jordan, betting that smaller, fast-growing destinations may offer better returns than the world's largest importing nations, as the industry gears up for the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026 in October.

Indian rice shipments to Jordan have risen nearly eight-fold, while basmati exports to Turkey have doubled, according to conference organisers - a shift that has caught the trade off guard given that neither country typically ranks among the world's top rice importers.

The trend will anchor a session titled "Top 10 Rice Markets to Watch in 2027: Demand Signals and Entry Strategies" at BIRC 2026, which will question the industry's long-standing assumption that the biggest import markets automatically represent the best opportunities.

"The traditional approach has been to look at the largest import markets and assume that those are automatically the best opportunities. We want to challenge that thinking," said Dev Garg, Vice-President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF). "Turkey and Jordan are excellent examples. Very few people would have identified them as standout markets at the beginning of the year, yet the trade data changed dramatically."

Global rice demand opens new markets for exporters

Global rice trade is projected to grow by around 22 million tonnes over the next decade, reaching approximately 81 million tonnes by 2035, according to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035. Africa's share of global rice imports is expected to climb to about 45 per cent by 2035 from roughly 35 per cent currently, with the incremental trade representing a market worth several billion dollars at current prices.

That has sharpened a strategic question for exporters, organisers said: where will the next USD 10 billion in global rice demand emerge, and which suppliers will move first.

Iran disruption pushes Indian rice shipments to new routes

Part of the surge in shipments to Jordan and Turkey traces back to disruption in direct trade with Iran, which sharply curtailed Indian exports there and pushed shipments through alternative regional routes.

"Part of this growth has resulted from changes in the Iranian trade route. But that itself is market intelligence. A country may matter because of consumption, because of distribution, because it gives access to another geography, or because the competitive environment suddenly changes," Garg said.

Organisers cautioned that the jump in Jordanian volumes does not necessarily reflect a matching rise in domestic consumption, with some of the growth instead driven by shifting regional trade flows and redistribution - a dynamic they said still carries commercial value for exporters tracking where demand is moving.

The BIRC 2026 session will move past simple import-volume rankings to assess demand growth, import dependence, competing origins, price realisation, product fit, freight costs, duties, regulatory requirements and payment risk for prospective markets.

"Anyone can produce a list of the ten largest rice importers. The real value is understanding which markets an Indian exporter can actually enter, what product they should take there, what price they can realise, what risks they will face and who they need to meet to make the first transaction happen," Garg said.

The session will also address execution - identifying buyers, required varieties, specifications, packaging, pricing, distributor access, certification and documentation - followed by structured B2B meetings between Indian exporters, millers and overseas buyers.

BIRC 2026 to focus on diversification and market viability

India currently exports rice to more than 170 countries, though a large share of trade remains concentrated among established buyers. Organisers pointed to results from 26 priority markets identified around BIRC 2025 as evidence diversification efforts are gaining traction: exports to that basket totalled approximately Rs 23,476 crore (USD 2.8 billion) and 4.79 million tonnes between November 2025 and March 2026, running 5.6 per cent above the three-year average.

CONFERENCE DETAILS

BIRC 2026 will be held at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi from October 23 to 25, bringing together Indian exporters, millers, international buyers, policymakers and trade experts to discuss opportunities and challenges in global rice trade.