Global food prices fall 1.2% in October as wheat, dairy and meat become cheaper

Global food commodity prices declined by 1.2 per cent in October 2026 as weaker international demand and improved supply prospects pushed down prices of cereals, dairy products and meat, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), which tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 133.9 points in October, declining by 1.6 points from its revised September level.

Despite the monthly decline, the index remained 5.9 per cent higher than its level a year earlier, although it was still 16.4 per cent below the record peak reached in March 2022.

The decline was primarily driven by falling prices of cereals, dairy products and meat, which more than offset a sharp increase in sugar prices and a marginal rise in vegetable oil quotations.

𝐂𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝟒.𝟓%

The FAO Cereal Price Index fell 4.5 per cent from September, reflecting lower international quotations for wheat and maize amid subdued demand and improving supply conditions.

Global wheat prices declined after four consecutive months of increases, largely due to weaker international demand and improved production prospects, particularly in Argentina.

Expectations of easing constraints on Black Sea export flows also contributed to downward pressure on wheat prices. However, continuing logistical disruptions in the region limited the extent of the decline.

International maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, supported by harvesting activities in the United States and expectations of ample supplies from major South American exporters.

Renewed prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region further contributed to the decline in maize quotations.

In contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.6 per cent in October as harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather conditions and rising production costs exerted upward pressure on prices.

𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐲, 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞

The FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 1.1 per cent from September, driven by lower international butter and cheese prices amid ample supplies and subdued buying interest.

The decrease in butter and cheese quotations more than offset further increases in milk powder prices.

The FAO Meat Price Index also fell 1.2 per cent during October, although it remained slightly above its level during the corresponding period last year.

Prices of pig, ovine and bovine meats declined during the month, while poultry meat quotations remained broadly stable.

The decline in meat prices reflected a combination of weaker international demand, improved availability and changing market conditions across major exporting countries.

𝐒𝐮𝐠𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝟔.𝟔%

While most major food commodity categories recorded price declines, sugar prices moved sharply in the opposite direction.

The FAO Sugar Price Index increased by 6.6 per cent from September and stood 28.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

The increase marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise, taking international sugar prices to their highest level since December 2024.

According to the FAO, the surge was primarily driven by rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations in Brazil's key Centre-South producing region.

Concerns over sugar production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand during the 2026-27 season also contributed to higher prices.

Meanwhile, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased marginally by 0.3 per cent from September.

Higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations more than offset declining rapeseed oil prices, while palm oil prices remained largely unchanged.

Soybean oil prices climbed to their highest levels since late 2022, supported by strong demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally declining supplies from South America.

𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤

Separately, the FAO projected global cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026, which would represent the second-highest annual output on record despite remaining below the record level achieved in 2025.

The organisation expects production to decline across major cereal categories, with wheat registering the most significant reduction.

Global cereal trade during the 2026-27 season is forecast to contract by 3.3 per cent to 507.7 million tonnes.

The decline is expected to be driven primarily by an 8.6 per cent reduction in international wheat trade amid supply constraints and logistical challenges affecting major exporting countries.

The FAO also projected global cereal utilisation at 2,971 million tonnes during 2026-27, representing a marginal increase of 0.2 per cent from the previous season.

Global cereal stocks are expected to rise by 1.8 per cent by the close of the 2027 seasons, supported by higher wheat inventories in Russia and Ukraine.

The latest figures indicate that although international food prices eased in October, the overall index remained above its year-earlier level, with supply disruptions and weather-related uncertainties continuing to influence global agricultural markets.