Quebec’s Parti Québécois (PQ) is heading into Monday’s provincial election as the frontrunner, raising concerns among sections of the Indo-Canadian community over its promise to hold a referendum on independence.
Led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the separatist party is projected to come close to the 64 seats needed for a majority in Quebec’s 127-member National Assembly. The latest 338Canada projection puts the PQ at 62 seats, with a projected vote share of 29.6 per cent.
The prospect of a PQ government has unsettled some Indo-Canadian residents, particularly because St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a sovereignty referendum after US President Donald Trump leaves office in January 2029. A PQ government elected for a four-year term on Monday would remain in office until October 2030, meaning the proposed referendum could fall within its mandate.
‘We identify as Canadians’
For Montreal-based physician and Indo-Canadian community leader Shivendra Dwivedi, the prospect of another independence vote has created anxiety among immigrants who have built their lives in Canada.
Dwivedi, who said he is more fluent in French than English, stressed that linguistic and cultural integration did not alter his sense of national identity.
“Despite that integration, we came to Canada as immigrants. We identify as Canadians,” he said.
He said this was broadly the reality for immigrants in Quebec and acknowledged the unease within the community.
“We’re a little bit anxious and nervous,” Dwivedi said.
Gurinder Johal, a resident of the township of Hudson who has been volunteering for the provincial Liberal Party during the election, expressed a similar concern.
“The worry is about the referendum. We don’t want any separation, we want to be part of Canada,” Johal said.
He also warned that divisions within communities could become “worse” if the PQ replaces the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which has been in power since 2018.
PQ's dramatic turnaround
The PQ's current position marks a sharp reversal from its performance in the 2022 election, when it won only three of the 127 seats.
The party has since staged a major comeback and entered the final stretch of the 2026 campaign as the clear frontrunner. Recent polling and seat projections indicate that the fragmentation of support among five parties has opened a path for the PQ to potentially secure a majority despite attracting only around 30 per cent of the popular vote.
The party has also won four additional seats in by-elections since 2022, taking its number of sitting legislators to seven before the legislature was dissolved.
The PQ had initially appeared more likely to form a minority government, but the CAQ's decline in the final weeks has strengthened its chances of winning a majority.
However, support for Quebec sovereignty itself remains considerably lower than support for the PQ. A 338Canada poll published in August found that 29 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Quebec sovereignty in a referendum, broadly consistent with the roughly 30 per cent support cited in current polling.
Indo-Canadians wary of separation
Quebec is home to an Indo-Canadian population estimated at between 100,000 and 125,000.
Ambica Sharma, a presenter with Montreal-based Radio Humsafar, said the community was unlikely to support a separatist party such as the PQ and would largely back the provincial Liberals.
“They would never support anything like that,” she said, referring to separation.
At the same time, Sharma said the political atmosphere surrounding this election was different, with parties supporting Canadian unity trailing the PQ in the race.
For younger members of the community, however, the referendum issue appears to have less resonance.
Pushti Vyas, a teenager born and raised in Quebec, said young people like her had little interest in an independence referendum and regarded it as a non-issue.
She nevertheless urged members of the Hindu community to become more involved in Quebec's political process.
“Find a bit of time to educate yourself and go vote,” she said.
Third referendum would reopen old divide
Quebec has already held two independence referenda, in 1980 and 1995, and both resulted in voters rejecting separation.
The issue has since lost much of its appeal among Quebecers, with current polling showing support for independence at around 30 per cent.
St-Pierre Plamondon won the PQ leadership in 2020 after committing to hold a referendum if the party formed the government. Before this year's campaign, he clarified that he would wait until Trump was out of the White House before proceeding.
The PQ leader has sought to play down the referendum question during the final days of the campaign, arguing that the election is also about replacing eight years of CAQ rule. However, his referendum pledge has remained a central issue for his opponents.
The CAQ and other federalist parties have warned that a sovereignty vote could create economic uncertainty and political instability. St-Pierre Plamondon has rejected those arguments as fearmongering and has urged voters to give his party a majority government.
The election comes at a time when Canadian national unity is again facing pressure. An Angus Reid Institute survey published earlier this year found that 67 per cent of Canadians believed it was unlikely that Quebec would separate from Canada, while 58 per cent said they were optimistic about the country's future as a united nation.
For Indo-Canadian residents who identify strongly with Canada despite their integration into Quebec's French-speaking society, another sovereignty campaign could therefore be particularly unsettling.
For Dwivedi, the most favourable outcome on Monday would simply be one in which the PQ fails to secure a majority, leaving its plans for an independence referendum less straightforward to pursue.