Israel's parliamentary election has delivered a fractured mandate, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu without a clear majority despite his Likud party emerging as the single largest political force. With neither major political camp commanding enough seats to form a government on its own, the spotlight has shifted to coalition negotiations, where Arab-led parties could play a decisive role.
The final results, announced by Israel's Central Elections Committee on Thursday, October 29, show Likud winning 27 seats, followed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party with 21. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad secured 12 seats, while the Joint List won 11. Mansour Abbas's Ra'am secured another eight seats, taking the combined strength of Arab-led parties to a record 19.
The numbers mark a significant setback for Netanyahu's outgoing coalition, which controlled 68 seats. Its reduced tally of 53 leaves the prime minister short of the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.
Netanyahu still has a chance to retain power
Despite the electoral setback, Netanyahu is not out of the race. Likud's position as the largest party gives him an opportunity to stake a claim to forming the next government. He will also remain prime minister in a caretaker capacity while the coalition formation process continues.
A prolonged political deadlock could work in his favour, allowing him to retain executive authority while the opposition attempts to reconcile differences among its centrist, liberal, right-wing and Arab political partners.
Another possibility is a national unity government involving Likud, Eisenkot's Yashar, Bennett's B'Yachad and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu. Together, these parties have enough seats to cross the majority mark. However, such an arrangement would require Netanyahu and his opponents to set aside their electoral differences.
Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers
The combined 19 seats won by the Joint List and Ra'am have placed Arab representatives in an influential position. Eisenkot's camp could potentially reach the majority threshold with their support, either through a coalition or external parliamentary backing.
However, cooperation is not guaranteed. Several opposition parties remain reluctant to work with Arab-led groups over disagreements concerning national security, Palestinian issues and the character of the Israeli state.
The election has also sparked controversy after Likud figures alleged foreign interference and claimed the results had been stolen. These allegations remain unsubstantiated. Qatar rejected the claims, while the opposition accused Netanyahu's camp of attempting to undermine the election outcome.
What happens next?
The final results are scheduled to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, while the newly-elected 26th Knesset is due to be sworn in on November 10.
Herzog will consult political parties before assigning a candidate the task of forming a government. If repeated attempts fail, Israel could head for another election.
For now, Netanyahu has retained his position as the leader of the largest party, but the numbers have shifted the balance of power. Whether he can return with a workable coalition or the opposition manages to unite with Arab parties will determine Israel's next political chapter.