Israel’s election has produced sharply contrasting projections, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot facing a difficult path to forming the next government. Exit polls indicate that Netanyahu’s Likud party is ahead, but neither major political bloc appears to have secured a clear parliamentary majority, setting the stage for potentially prolonged coalition negotiations.
The vote is the first national election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Netanyahu has faced scrutiny over the security failures that preceded the assault, his policies towards Palestinians and Israel’s growing international isolation.
Partial results show Netanyahu’s bloc ahead
Exit poll projections put Netanyahu’s Likud on 27 seats, with his broader bloc expected to secure 52 seats. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats, while the opposition bloc is forecast to take 49.
However, partial results released by the Central Elections Committee initially presented a different picture. With 25.2% of votes counted as of 7.30 am IST, the pro-Netanyahu bloc was projected to win 63 seats, compared with 49 for the anti-Netanyahu bloc. The remaining eight seats were held by the non-aligned Joint List of Arab factions, according to The Times of Israel.
The figures are provisional and may change as counting continues. According to CNN, citing Channel 12 News’ exit poll, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to fall from 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset to 52. Final results were expected on October 30, although coalition negotiations could continue beyond the announcement.
Under Israel’s electoral system, parties must secure at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the Knesset, the country’s 120-member parliament. A government generally requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers.
Arab parties emerge as potential kingmakers
The Joint List and Raam, two Arab political groupings, were projected by exit polls to win a combined 19 seats, potentially marking the largest representation of Arab parties in Israel’s parliament.
Both have indicated that they would support Eisenkot to some extent. Their leaders urged supporters to turn out to help remove Netanyahu from office, arguing that another term under his leadership would pose an existential threat, Bloomberg reported.
Arab voter participation also appeared to have risen significantly compared with previous elections, CNN reported. The projected gains could make Arab parties important players in negotiations over the next government, particularly if neither major bloc can secure a majority independently.
Netanyahu vows to form a right-wing government
Responding to the exit poll projections, Netanyahu said his bloc continued to enjoy the backing of a “decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish public”. He pledged to form a new government despite projections suggesting that his coalition could fall short of the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
Calling for unity among right-wing forces, Netanyahu told cheering supporters that Israel needed a strong government of the right. He also rejected the prospect of a government relying on the support of Israeli Arab parties, which are projected to make significant gains.
“We must put in place a strong government of the right,” he said, adding that the Jewish and Zionist majority must unite. “It is out of the question to have a government that is backed by Arab parties,” he said, according to AFP.
Netanyahu ended his address with the declaration that “Israel will stay forever”. He also said the country had confronted and defeated its enemies and would be able to do so again, describing Israelis as “the lions” and “the roaring lions”.
He added that those who had failed to hear Israel’s voice in the past would hear it in the future, insisting that the country’s message would not be false.
Eisenkot challenges Netanyahu’s leadership
Addressing supporters in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot issued a direct warning to the prime minister, accusing him of risking the politicisation of national security.
“Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs,” he said.
Eisenkot also addressed members of Israel’s security establishment, saying their responsibility was to the state rather than to Netanyahu. He described the prime minister as “a caretaker prime minister, without a mandate or the people's trust”.
The opposition leader has argued that the election represents a rejection of Netanyahu’s leadership and called for a change in government. However, the exit polls and partial results have left the opposition without a clear path to a parliamentary majority.
October 7 attacks remain central to Netanyahu’s challenge
Netanyahu has faced sustained criticism from political opponents over the security failures that allowed Hamas to carry out its October 7, 2023, assault. He has opposed calls for an investigation into the attacks and has blamed the military for the failures that day.
His critics argue that responsibility must also rest with the political leadership in office at the time. They have called for a commission of inquiry to establish how the security breakdown occurred and who should be held accountable.
The election therefore represents a significant test for Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, as voters weigh his security record alongside his approach to the Palestinians and the country’s deteriorating international standing.
Coalition negotiations could prolong political uncertainty
Neither bloc has secured a clear mandate based on the exit poll projections, leaving smaller parties and potential coalition partners with considerable influence over the next government.
Once the final results are certified, President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party leaders and select the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a coalition. The candidate tasked with forming a government will have a limited period to secure sufficient support, with another candidate potentially getting an opportunity if negotiations fail.
If no leader can assemble a viable coalition, Israel could face another election. Netanyahu would remain in office as caretaker prime minister in the interim.
With the final seat tally still uncertain, the outcome will depend on the completed count and the willingness of parties to negotiate. The projected gains by Arab parties, alongside the competing estimates for the two main blocs, could prove decisive in determining who forms Israel’s next government.