Arab parties have emerged as a potentially decisive force in Israel's election, securing 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset as the vote count continued on Wednesday. With neither of the two main political camps projected to secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority, their support could prove crucial in determining who forms the next government.
Partial results reported by Israeli media showed the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am gaining significant representation. The figures could still change as counting progresses, including the tally of ballots cast through double envelopes, which includes votes from soldiers and other eligible voters voting outside regular polling arrangements.
The latest available count, with more than three-quarters of ballots counted, put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at 54 seats and the opposition camp led by Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot at 47. The Arab parties' combined tally of 19 seats has increased their potential influence over coalition negotiations.
Opposition urged to cooperate with Arab parties
Democrats lawmaker Gilad Kariv has called on Israel's opposition parties to work with Arab political groups, arguing that the election has created a “different political reality”.
“The fully right-wing coalition has lost quite a few seats. It will most likely be unable to form a government in a similar setup,” Kariv wrote on X.
He said the opposition had strengthened its representation among both liberal Jewish voters and Arab voters, adding that a large majority had voted against Netanyahu.
“The opposition has grown stronger – both in its representation of the liberal Jewish public and in its representation of the Arab public. A very large majority, by a margin of hundreds of thousands, voted against Benjamin Netanyahu,” he wrote.
Kariv argued that opposition parties now faced important decisions about Israel's political future. He also warned against allowing Netanyahu and his allies to continue what he described as the country's “destructive direction” over the past four years.
Arab parties could prove pivotal in government formation
Al Jazeera correspondent Nida Ibrahim, reporting from Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, said Arab parties had secured 19 seats with around 70% of votes counted at the time of her report, an unprecedented tally that could give them significant leverage in negotiations.
Neither the Netanyahu-led camp nor the opposition has enough seats on its own to form a majority government. Eisenkot would therefore need support from Arab parties, either by bringing them into a governing coalition or through a so-called “safety-net scenario”, in which they refrain from voting against his government.
However, the possibility of such an arrangement has become more uncertain as the count has progressed. Eisenkot's projected seat tally has fallen while Netanyahu's has risen, potentially narrowing the opposition's options.
The final outcome will depend on the remaining votes and whether the parties can agree on a viable coalition. The Arab parties' performance has made their position central to the negotiations, but their participation or outside support is not guaranteed.
Results remain provisional as counting continues
Three parties remained below Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold in the partial results cited in the initial count. Reservists had received 2.7% of the vote, People of Israel 1.6% and Charedi Public 0.2%, leaving them short of the minimum required to enter the Knesset.
The figures remain provisional, and the final seat distribution could change after the remaining ballots are counted. Double-envelope votes, including ballots cast by soldiers, will be tallied later.
Until the count is complete and coalition discussions advance, it remains unclear whether Netanyahu can secure another term or whether Eisenkot and other opposition leaders can assemble a government with the backing of Arab parties.