Iran could still have between 1,500 and 2,500 missiles in its arsenal despite months of US and Israeli attacks on its military infrastructure, according to a US intelligence assessment cited by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The stockpile could allow Tehran to strike American and allied positions if hostilities resume.
US officials told the newspaper that the estimate remains uncertain, as it is difficult to determine how many missiles are ready for launch and how many remain in storage. Israeli military officials have also put Iran's ballistic missile stockpile at more than 1,500, although estimates differ.
Simone Ledeen, a former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Gulf during US President Donald Trump's first term, said even the lower estimate would mean Iran had rebuilt more than half of its estimated pre-war stockpile. She added that Iran had fully replenished its arsenal between the 12-day war in June 2025 and the start of the current conflict in February.
Iran continues rebuilding missile arsenal
The assessment raises questions about the extent of damage caused by the US-Israeli military campaign. The Trump administration had claimed significant success after Operation Epic Fury, with the White House saying in April that more than 85 per cent of Iran's defence-industrial base had been destroyed and its missile arsenal and production capacity “razed”.
However, US officials said Tehran was rebuilding its stockpile using components stored before the war, although production remains slower than it was before the fighting. Iran also retains a substantial supply of drones and short-range missiles.
Tehran has continued targeting US military installations, radar systems and early-warning infrastructure across the Gulf. The attacks have damaged American military assets, leading to the relocation of some equipment to Israel, which US and Israeli officials consider safer.
Secrecy makes missile estimates difficult
Iran's military secrecy and its network of missile manufacturers make it difficult to establish the exact size of its arsenal. The number of missiles that can be assembled from components stored underground is also unclear.
Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow at King's College London and former CIA analyst specialising in Iran, said assessing the stockpile was challenging. “Having done this work for the government, I know it can be extremely low confidence even with all the classified information,” he said, as per WSJ.
An Israeli military official acknowledged that Iran was recovering, saying, “They are rebuilding, rearming,” and adding that Tehran was preparing for another major round of fighting.
Bilal Saab, senior managing director of Washington-based geopolitical risk firm Trends US, said Iran's military strength depended on more than the number of missiles it possessed. “It’s not just the size of that arsenal. It’s how Iran uses it, and its commanders have learned a few tricks to be more effective,” he told the WSJ.
Trump weighs options on fresh strikes
The report comes amid uncertainty over Washington's next move. Trump has reportedly considered holding off on fresh strikes, provided Iran and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen do not provoke the US.
According to Reuters, Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have urged Trump against restarting a full-scale war, arguing that sanctions and the US naval blockade are already hurting Iran's economy.
"I could end it immediately, but at the request of the nations that I am looking to protect, we are doing it a little bit longer way, a bit more civilly," Trump said on Thursday.