China has sharply expanded the presence of coast guard, research and other government vessels around Taiwan, with official figures showing maritime activity climbing to record levels as Beijing steps up pressure around the self-governed island. Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration recorded 244 Chinese vessels around Taiwan in July, compared with 55 in June and 30 in May. The July figure translates into nearly eight vessels a day and was more than four times the 58 detected in the same month last year.
Around 60 per cent of the vessels recorded in July were Chinese coast guard ships, while the remainder included research and other government vessels. Significantly, the tally excludes People's Liberation Army Navy warships, which routinely operate around Taiwan.
Another 152 Chinese vessels were detected during the first 21 days of August. Coast guard figures put the cumulative number recorded around Taiwan and its outlying islands since May at 1,247. Taiwanese officials have described the increase as part of an intensification of China's so-called grey-zone operations — coercive activities designed to assert pressure without escalating into open military conflict.
Research vessels draw scrutiny
The growing deployment of Chinese oceanographic and research ships has attracted particular attention because of the potential military value of the information they gather. Ryan D Martinson, an associate professor at the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, said civilian research organisations operating the vessels can provide collected information to China's military. Oceanographic data can be particularly valuable for submarine and anti-submarine operations because knowledge of seabed features and underwater conditions can influence how submarines are detected and deployed.
China has used research vessels in the region for years, but analysts say the scale and persistence of the latest operations mark a significant change. Taiwan's coast guard has previously said China operates more than 120 oceanographic research vessels and that it tracks around 41 of them operating near Taiwan.
Among the ships attracting attention is the Xiang Yang Hong 03, which was recently observed moving through areas covering deep-sea trenches and undersea telecommunications cables within waters claimed as exclusive economic zones by Taiwan and Japan.
The vessel was accompanied by a Chinese coast guard ship and a fishing vessel identified by analysts as belonging to China's maritime militia. Experts said it was the first known instance of maritime militia accompanying a Chinese research vessel in waters around Taiwan.
Analysts believe the mission could help China update hydrographic information on the Ryukyu and East Taiwan trenches, data that could prove useful in tracking submarines during a conflict.
Blockade concerns grow
The surge has broader implications for Taiwan because Chinese government vessels are increasingly operating beyond the Taiwan Strait, including in waters east of the island.
A sustained presence there could give Beijing greater ability to assert jurisdiction while familiarising its forces with maritime areas that would be strategically important during a crisis.
Security analysts have also raised concerns that China's expanding coast guard presence could support a future quarantine or blockade scenario. Such an operation could seek to restrict commercial shipping and vital energy supplies without immediately resorting to a conventional invasion.
Taiwan relies heavily on maritime trade and imported energy, making uninterrupted access to shipping routes crucial to its economy and security.
Chinese coast guard and civilian government ships could play an important role in a blockade by intercepting or inspecting commercial vessels, potentially allowing the PLA Navy to concentrate on deterring military intervention by other countries.
Taiwan steps up monitoring
Taiwan has rejected Beijing's assertions of jurisdiction over surrounding waters and has accused China of attempting to gradually alter the status quo through increasingly persistent operations.
On Thursday, Taiwan's defence ministry separately reported nine Chinese naval vessels and seven other official ships operating around the island during the preceding 24 hours. Taiwanese forces monitored the activity using aircraft, naval vessels and coastal missile systems.
Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and maintains that its future can be decided only by its people.
The latest figures point to a shift beyond episodic military exercises towards a more persistent maritime presence, increasing the strain on Taiwan's surveillance and coast guard resources while allowing Beijing to steadily expand its operational footprint around the island.