A powerful El Nino developing in the Pacific could become the strongest seen in more than a century, raising the prospect of another record-breaking year for global temperatures and adding pressure on India's monsoon and agriculture.
Britain's MeT Office has forecast Pacific waters could rise more than 3°C above normal during the event. If the projections hold, 2027 could overtake 2024 as the warmest year on record.
El Nino forecast points to extreme Pacific warming
The Climate Brink dashboard, which compiles forecast models using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, puts the peak anomaly at around 3.9°C in November.
That would be substantially higher than the roughly 3°C peak recorded during the 2015-16 El Nino, currently regarded as the strongest in the modern record.
“We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees, that is unheard of in modern climate records,” said Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the MeT Office.
Scaife said the intensity being indicated by current forecasts was highly unusual. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” he said in a MeT Office blog, adding, “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”
El Nino is a recurring climate pattern in which the central and eastern equatorial Pacific becomes unusually warm. It influences winds, rainfall and temperatures far beyond the Pacific.
2027 could set a new temperature record
The strongest effects of El Nino on global temperatures are generally felt in the year after the event begins. That makes 2027 a key year for the global temperature record.
Nick Dunstone, another MeT Office scientist, said 2027 is “very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record".
India could also face intense heatwaves next year. However, whether the country's average temperature surpasses its 2024 record will depend partly on monsoon and ENSO conditions, said OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at the India Meteorological Department.
“For the Indian region, average temperature may not cross the 2024 record temperature. It will depend on the 2027 monsoon and ENSO conditions after the monsoon season then,” he said.
Agriculture faces a double-season challenge
The consequences for India could extend beyond temperatures and rainfall. A weaker monsoon could affect the current agricultural cycle, while heat and weather disruptions may also hit the Rabi crop.
Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland and visiting professor at IIT-Kanpur's Kotak School of Sustainability, said the impact could stretch into 2027.
“2023 and 2024 were fairly bad years too, due to El Nino. This year too, for India, the Rabi output may suffer and the government is already taking safeguards, like the action on edible oil and sugar. In 2027, for India, a lot will depend on how the monsoon performs, but spring next year may also bring a lot of heatwaves, which will again impact crops,” he said.
El Nino events typically last nine to 12 months and occur every two to seven years. In India, they are generally associated with weaker monsoon conditions, making the strength of the emerging event particularly significant for the country's weather and farm output.