India recorded its fourth-lowest southwest monsoon rainfall since 2001, with precipitation during the June-September season ending 12.6 per cent below normal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The country received 759.4 mm of rainfall against the long-period average of 868.6 mm, marking its weakest monsoon since 2015.
The deficient monsoon was characterised by prolonged dry spells, uneven rainfall distribution and significant regional variations. Although rainfall improved towards the end of September, the late recovery was insufficient to compensate for the substantial deficit accumulated during the earlier months.
Northeast and southern India record sharp deficits
East and northeast India recorded a rainfall deficit of 25 per cent, while southern peninsular India received 24 per cent less rainfall than normal. Northwest India registered a 6 per cent shortfall, while central India remained comparatively better placed, with rainfall just 2 per cent below its seasonal average.
Among individual regions, Arunachal Pradesh recorded a 44 per cent deficit, followed by Punjab at 41 per cent, Assam and Meghalaya at 39 per cent, Marathwada at 39 per cent, Bihar at 32 per cent and Kerala at 28 per cent. Overall, 17 meteorological subdivisions, accounting for approximately 42 per cent of the country's geographical area, experienced deficient rainfall.
Late September showers fail to bridge gap
The monsoon began on a weak note, with rainfall remaining substantially below normal during June and early July. The weekly rainfall deficit reached 51.1 per cent in the week ending July 15 before improved precipitation during late July and early August provided temporary relief.
However, rainfall weakened again during the second half of August and early September, with the weekly deficit reaching 36.3 per cent in the week ending September 9. Subsequent rainfall across parts of northwest and central India helped narrow the accumulated shortfall, but eastern, northeastern and southern regions continued to experience inadequate precipitation.
IMD forecasts below-normal October rainfall
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of India during October, with nationwide precipitation expected to remain below 85 per cent of the long-period average. The October-December period is also likely to experience below-normal rainfall across much of the country, although parts of northwest and southern peninsular India could receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
IMD Director General M Mohapatra said El Niño conditions were strengthening and were expected to peak in November before gradually weakening. The weather phenomenon, associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has contributed to reduced monsoon rainfall this year.
The weather department also reported unusually high temperatures during September, with India's average maximum temperature reaching 32.05 degrees Celsius, the highest recorded for the month since 1901. The deficient monsoon and continued rainfall uncertainty have raised concerns over agricultural production, reservoir storage and water availability ahead of the winter cropping season.