The El Niño weather phenomenon developing over the Pacific Ocean is strengthening rapidly and could become one of the most powerful events recorded since 1950, raising concerns over its impact on rainfall and temperatures in India. The latest projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate a high probability of the ongoing El Niño intensifying substantially towards the end of 2026.
The phenomenon is expected to peak during the October-December period before continuing into early 2027. The development is significant for India as El Niño has historically been associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall, although its presence does not automatically result in drought or deficient rainfall every year.
NOAA's projections indicate that El Niño will strengthen through the remainder of the year, with the event likely to rank among the strongest recorded in more than seven decades. Earlier forecasts had placed the probability of a "very strong" El Niño during October-December at 81 per cent. More recent projections indicate that the Pacific warming is continuing to intensify.
El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It forms one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which can alter atmospheric circulation and influence weather patterns across large parts of the world.
A strong El Niño can affect rainfall, temperatures, storms and drought conditions across different regions, although its precise impact varies from one event to another.
For India, the immediate concern is the southwest monsoon, which provides the bulk of the country's annual rainfall and remains crucial for agriculture, reservoirs and rural demand.
El Niño generally has a suppressing influence on the Indian monsoon. The country has already experienced below-normal rainfall during parts of the 2026 monsoon season, with August emerging as a particular concern.
India Meteorological Department projections have indicated below-normal rainfall during August, while rainfall during the August-September period is also expected to remain below normal.
Any prolonged dry spell could affect recently sown kharif crops, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions.
However, meteorologists caution against drawing a direct link between the strength of El Niño and the eventual monsoon deficit. Other oceanic and atmospheric factors can either amplify or offset its influence.
One factor being closely monitored is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to differences in sea-surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.
A positive IOD can sometimes support the Indian monsoon and partially counter the adverse influence of El Niño.
The IOD has remained broadly neutral, though its evolution during the remaining monsoon period will be important in determining rainfall conditions over India.
The distribution of rainfall will also matter. Even when countrywide seasonal rainfall remains relatively close to normal, prolonged dry periods or highly uneven rainfall can affect agriculture and water availability.
The consequences of a powerful El Niño may extend beyond the southwest monsoon.
El Niño conditions can contribute to higher temperatures, and a strong event continuing through the winter and into 2027 could influence India's post-monsoon and winter weather.
The phenomenon can also contribute to marine heatwaves in the northern Indian Ocean, potentially affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries.
With the current event expected to remain active into early 2027, weather agencies will closely monitor Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the coming months.
While the eventual impact on India cannot yet be predicted with certainty, the possibility of an exceptionally strong El Niño has increased concerns over rainfall, agriculture, water availability and temperatures.