The ongoing El Nino phenomenon over the tropical Pacific Ocean could reach unprecedented intensity towards the end of 2026, with sea surface temperatures projected to rise as much as 3.8 degrees Celsius above average, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Wednesday.
In its latest seasonal climate outlook, the United Nations weather agency said sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific could reach 3.8 degrees Celsius during November 2026 to January 2027, indicating an exceptionally strong El Nino event.
The projected increase is substantially higher than the 0.5-degree Celsius temperature anomaly used as a threshold for identifying El Nino conditions.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned that the developing phenomenon could exceed the range covered by monitoring charts used over the past four decades.
"This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Nino will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that," Saulo said in a statement.
๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด
El Nino is one of three phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate phenomenon involving changes in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and associated fluctuations in atmospheric conditions.
During an El Nino event, ocean waters in the affected Pacific region become warmer than normal, influencing atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across different parts of the world.
The opposite phase, La Nina, is generally associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same region, while the neutral phase occurs when neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions dominate.
El Nino typically contributes to higher global temperatures, while La Nina can exert a temporary cooling influence.
The WMO's latest projection suggests that the present warming episode could develop into an exceptionally intense event, with consequences extending beyond its anticipated peak towards the end of the year.
๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐๐, ๐ณ๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ๐
According to the WMO, a very strong El Nino can significantly disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns across multiple regions.
Some areas may experience severe drought as rainfall decreases, while others could witness unusually heavy precipitation and flooding.
The phenomenon can also contribute to increased temperatures across large parts of the world, intensifying heat-related risks.
The precise effects vary by region, depending on seasonal conditions and the interaction between ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation.
The agency cautioned that the effects of an exceptionally strong El Nino could continue well after sea surface temperatures begin returning towards normal.
The latest outlook underscores the importance of monitoring the evolving Pacific Ocean conditions as countries prepare for possible disruptions to rainfall, temperature patterns and extreme weather events in the coming months.