Some Brazilian sugar may reach India before October 15 as prices begin to cool
The first consignments of imported sugar could reach India before October 15 following the Centre’s decision to permit duty-free imports, although the quantity arriving by then remains uncertain because of shipping schedules and procedural requirements, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) said on Sunday.
NFCSF President Prakash Naiknavare said Brazil was currently the only realistic source for the imports. Thailand, traditionally another major supplier to India, is dealing with a domestic shortfall and is therefore unlikely to contribute significantly. Sugar shipped from Brazil normally takes around 40-45 days to reach Indian ports. Additional time is required to transport the cargo from ports to mills. Naiknavare said arrivals before October 15 were possible, but putting a figure on them would be premature. The timing would depend on several factors, including Directorate General of Foreign Trade approvals, allocations, issuance of letters of credit, shipment schedules and congestion at Brazilian ports.
Deadline may remain flexible
The Centre on August 20 permitted duty-free imports of up to 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar after prices surged by around 24 per cent within a month, reaching Rs 56-60 per kg across retail and wholesale markets.
While the current window requires shipments to arrive by October 31, Naiknavare indicated that the deadline may not necessarily be treated as absolute, particularly for consignments already in transit.
He said the government could consider allowing cargo reaching Indian ports after October 31 rather than rejecting shipments merely because of logistical delays.
Port-connected sugar-producing states are expected to gain quicker access to the imported supplies. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are likely to receive raw sugar before landlocked states in northern India.
Northern mills, however, have previously sourced imported sugar through these ports, with cargo subsequently transported by rail or road.
NFCSF sees no supply crisis
Despite the recent spike in prices, the cooperative sugar body does not foresee a serious shortage.
NFCSF has maintained its estimate for net sugar production during the 2025-26 season at 279 lakh tonnes. The projection excludes around 24 lakh tonnes of sugar expected to be diverted towards ethanol production.
The federation expects the country to enter the 2026-27 sugar season on October 1 with an opening stock of around 35 lakh tonnes. India's monthly domestic requirement is approximately 22 lakh tonnes.
Between 15 lakh and 20 lakh tonnes are expected to remain available going into November, by which time early-season crushing should begin bringing fresh sugar into the market.
Naiknavare said these numbers did not indicate conditions that should trigger panic over supplies.
The government's earlier decision to permit sugar exports had been based on information supplied by state cane commissioners rather than projections from industry associations, he said.
India eventually exported only around eight lakh tonnes against the permitted quota of 20 lakh tonnes because international prices made exports commercially unattractive. Naiknavare estimated that shipments would probably not have exceeded 10 lakh tonnes even without restrictions.
The Centre subsequently banned sugar exports from May 13 until September 30 to improve domestic availability and contain prices.
Crackdown begins to bite
Signs of easing prices have emerged following the government's intervention against stockpiling and speculative activity.
Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra last week accused sections of the industry of pushing up prices and hoarding sugar. Before his press conference, Chopra met representatives of NFCSF and the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association and asked the industry to release sufficient quantities into the market and curb speculative pricing.
Ex-mill sugar prices had climbed to Rs 65-67 per kg, excluding GST, but tenders opened on Saturday showed rates dropping by about Rs 5 per kg.
Naiknavare expects the correction to continue during the coming week as enforcement intensifies.
The government's measures have been rolled out in stages. Physical verification of sugar stocks held by mills was carried out between August 1 and 14, followed by the imposition of a 200-tonne stock ceiling on traders.
Separate restrictions were introduced for bulk buyers, who account for nearly 65 per cent of domestic sugar consumption and had accumulated supplies through cheaper forward purchases. State-level inspections of warehouses belonging to traders and millers have subsequently been stepped up.
Flying squads have also been deployed across states to monitor stocks and market activity.
Naiknavare said cooperative sugar mills had largely remained within their allotted quotas and avoided speculative trading.
Global prices offer relief
International markets have so far reacted unexpectedly to India's decision to import 10 lakh tonnes.
Instead of rising after one of the world's largest sugar consumers entered the market, raw sugar prices briefly touched 18 cents per pound before retreating to around 17.50 cents. That was below the roughly 17.85-cent level prevailing before India's import announcement.
Naiknavare attributed the movement to comfortable supplies in the global market, which could help limit the price impact of India's purchases.
The final landed cost of imported sugar will depend on international prices, freight charges, port handling and transportation within India. With customs duty waived, movements in the global market will play an important role in determining whether cheaper imports translate into further relief for domestic consumers.
For now, the combination of expected Brazilian shipments, adequate opening stocks and tougher action against hoarding has eased immediate concerns over availability, with the industry expecting prices to soften further as more sugar is released into the market.